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Question 52 - CSCP discussion

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Which of the following forecasting methods relies on the opinions of a panel of experts?

A.
Delphi technique
Answers
A.
Delphi technique
B.
Survey method
Answers
B.
Survey method
C.
Causal method
Answers
C.
Causal method
D.
Time series analysis
Answers
D.
Time series analysis
Suggested answer: A

Explanation:

The Delphi technique is a structured forecasting method that relies on the opinions of a panel of experts. Here's how it works:

Expert Panel: A group of experts in the relevant field is selected to provide their insights and forecasts.

Iterative Rounds: The process involves multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to the experts. After each round, a facilitator provides a summary of the forecasts and reasons provided by the panel.

Anonymity: Experts provide their opinions anonymously to prevent the influence of dominant individuals and to encourage unbiased input.

Convergence: Through iterative feedback and revisions, the panel's forecasts tend to converge towards a consensus.

The Delphi technique is particularly useful for long-term forecasting and scenarios where quantitative data is scarce or unreliable.

Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Springer.

Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). 'The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis.' International Journal of Forecasting.

asked 16/09/2024
Nikita Kazanenko
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