PMI-RMP: PMI Risk Management Professional

If a risk still leaves substantial residual risk after implementing the mitigation strategy, the risk manager should revisit the risk register and redefine the mitigation strategy to reduce the residual risk to an acceptable level.

According to the PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1, an effect of adding the correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model is that it increases the standard deviation of the model. This is because:

Correlation is the statistical relationship between two or more variables. In a schedule risk analysis, correlation can be used to model the dependency between the durations of different activities. For example, if two activities are positively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is also likely to take longer than expected. Conversely, if two activities are negatively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is likely to take shorter than expected.

A Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis is a simulation technique that uses random values for uncertain variables, such as activity durations, to generate possible outcomes for the project schedule. The simulation is repeated many times to produce a probability distribution of the project completion date and duration. The standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of the distribution. A higher standard deviation means that the distribution is more spread out and less predictable.

Adding correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model increases the standard deviation of the model because it introduces more variability and uncertainty to the simulation. Correlated activities can have a cumulative effect on the project schedule, either positively or negatively, depending on the direction and strength of the correlation. This can result in more extreme outcomes for the project completion date and duration, which increase the spread of the distribution and the standard deviation.

PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1

Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Exam Cert Guide2

To ensure an effective risk management plan, the risk manager needs to consider aligning the plan to project constraints and priorities and obtaining stakeholder acceptance, as these factors will help ensure that the plan is relevant and supported by the project team and stakeholders.

According to the PMI-RMP Handbook, the risk management plan is a document that describes how risk management activities will be structured and performed on the project. It is one of the main outputs of the Plan Risk Management process. The risk management plan should consider the following factors to ensure its effectiveness:

Aligning to project constraints and priorities: The risk management plan should be aligned with the project objectives, scope, schedule, cost, quality, resources, and stakeholder expectations. It should also reflect the project's risk appetite, tolerance, and threshold levels, which indicate the degree of uncertainty that the project can accept. The risk management plan should prioritize the risk management activities based on the project's critical success factors and key performance indicators.

Obtaining stakeholder acceptance: The risk management plan should be developed with the involvement and input of key stakeholders, such as the project sponsor, customer, team members, subject matter experts, and other relevant parties. The risk management plan should be communicated and approved by the stakeholders to ensure their commitment and support for the risk management process. The risk management plan should also define the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders in risk management, as well as the reporting and escalation mechanisms.

The other options are not valid factors for ensuring an effective risk management plan:

Applying modern risk management techniques: The risk management plan should apply the appropriate risk management techniques that suit the project's context, complexity, and characteristics. The techniques should be based on the best practices and standards of the profession, such as the PMBOK Guide and the Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. The techniques do not have to be modern or innovative, as long as they are effective and efficient.

Ensuring risk response strategies mitigate all risks: The risk management plan should define the risk response strategies that will be used to address the identified risks. However, the risk response strategies do not have to mitigate all risks, as some risks may be accepted, transferred, or avoided. The risk response strategies should be based on the risk analysis and evaluation, which consider the probability and impact of the risks, as well as the cost and benefits of the responses.

Minimizing implementation costs: The risk management plan should consider the budget and resources available for the risk management activities. However, the risk management plan should not aim to minimize the implementation costs at the expense of the quality and effectiveness of the risk management process. The risk management plan should balance the costs and benefits of the risk management activities, and ensure that they provide value to the project.

According to the PMBOK Guide, one of the tools and techniques for the identify risks process isdata gathering. Data gathering is the process of collecting information from various sources to identify potential risks that may affect the project objectives.One of the data gathering techniques isdocument analysis, which involves reviewing and analyzing available project documents and other information sources to identify potential risks1.

Two of the artifacts that will help the risk manager conduct the initial risk assessment for a six month initiative are thework breakdown structure (WBS)and theproject organizational chart. These are two of the project documents that can be analyzed for potential risks in the project.

Thework breakdown structure (WBS)is a hierarchical decomposition of the total scope of work to be carried out by the project team to accomplish the project objectives and create the required deliverables. The WBS represents the work defined in the current approved project scope statement and provides the framework for detailed cost estimating, resource planning, and risk management.By reviewing the WBS, the risk manager can identify potential risks that are associated with each work package, deliverable, or scope element, such as technical complexity, quality requirements, dependencies, assumptions, constraints, and uncertainties1.

Theproject organizational chartis a graphical representation of the project team members and their reporting relationships. The project organizational chart depicts the roles and responsibilities of the project team, as well as the communication channels and authority levels among the team members and other stakeholders.By reviewing the project organizational chart, the risk manager can identify potential risks that are related to the project team structure, such as resource availability, skill gaps, team dynamics, stakeholder expectations, and conflict resolution1.

Some of the other options are not relevant or appropriate for the question scenario:

Theconfiguration management planis a component of the project management plan that describes how the project team will manage the configuration of the project's deliverables and documentation. The configuration management plan defines the processes, tools, and methods for identifying, controlling, tracking, and auditing the changes to the project's baselines.The configuration management plan is not an artifact that will help the risk manager conduct the initial risk assessment, as it does not provide information on the potential risks that may affect the project objectives or scope1.

Brainstormingis a technique for the identify risks process that involves generating a list of potential risks through a group discussion. Brainstorming is not an artifact, but rather a tool and technique for identifying risks.Brainstorming can help the risk manager conduct the initial risk assessment, but only after reviewing and analyzing the available project documents and information sources1.

Monte Carlo analysisis a technique for the perform quantitative risk analysis process that involves simulating the combined effect of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty on the project objectives, such as cost or schedule. Monte Carlo analysis is not an artifact, but rather a tool and technique for analyzing risks.Monte Carlo analysis can help the risk manager conduct the initial risk assessment, but only after identifying and prioritizing the individual project risks and their probability and impact1.

Quantitative risk analysis helps determine the minimum acceptable level of exposure and impact for each risk. It also helps to understand if the maximum level of exposure has been reached before escalating the risk. (Reference: PMBOK Guide, 6th Edition, p. 423)

The team should perform quantitative risk analysis, which is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. Quantitative risk analysis can help the team to establish the minimum acceptable level of exposure and impact for each risk, as well as the maximum level of exposure before escalation. Quantitative risk analysis can also provide probabilistic estimates of project outcomes, such as cost and schedule, and support risk prioritization and decision making.Reference:PMI, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), Sixth Edition, 2017, p. 399; PMI, The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects, 2019, p. 69.

A decision tree analysis is a tool that helps to evaluate and select the best option among different alternatives based on costs and probabilities. A decision tree analysis uses a graphical representation of a decision problem, where each node represents a decision point, a chance event, or an outcome. The branches of the tree show the possible choices, events, or consequences that can occur at each node. The end nodes of the tree show the expected value or payoff of each option, which is calculated by multiplying the probability and the cost or benefit of each outcome.A decision tree analysis can help to compare the expected values of different options and choose the one that maximizes the benefit or minimizes the cost1.A decision tree analysis can also help to incorporate uncertainty and risk into the decision making process, as it shows the range of possible outcomes and their likelihoods2. Therefore, the project manager should perform a decision tree analysis to evaluate and select the best option based on costs and probabilities for a mega facility development project. Performing a FMECA fault tree analysis, conducting a sensitivity analysis, or conducting an analytic hierarchy process are not the best options to evaluate and select the best option based on costs and probabilities. A FMECA fault tree analysis is a tool that helps to identify and analyze the potential causes and effects of failures in a system or process. It uses a graphical representation of a failure event, where each node represents a basic or intermediate event that contributes to the failure. The branches of the tree show the logical relationships between the events, using AND or OR gates.A FMECA fault tree analysis can help to calculate the probability and severity of failures, as well as to prioritize and mitigate the risks3. However, a FMECA fault tree analysis does not help to compare different options or alternatives, as it focuses on a single failure scenario. Conducting a sensitivity analysis is a tool that helps to measure how the uncertainty in the input variables of a model affects the output or outcome of the model. It uses a graphical or numerical representation of the relationship between the input and output variables, showing how the output changes when the input changes.A sensitivity analysis can help to identify the most critical or influential variables, as well as to test the robustness or reliability of the model4. However, a sensitivity analysis does not help to compare different options or alternatives, as it focuses on a single model or option. Conducting an analytic hierarchy process is a tool that helps to evaluate and select the best option among different alternatives based on multiple criteria. It uses a mathematical method of pairwise comparison, where each alternative is compared to each other in terms of each criterion. The results of the comparisons are then aggregated into a matrix, which shows the relative importance or preference of each alternative.An analytic hierarchy process can help to rank the alternatives and choose the one that best satisfies the criteria5.However, an analytic hierarchy process does not help to incorporate costs and probabilities into the decision making process, as it relies on subjective judgments and preferences.Reference:1,2,3,4,5.

A decision tree analysis is a quantitative risk analysis technique that helps evaluate and select the best option based on costs and probabilities. It visually represents different decision paths and their associated probabilities, allowing the project manager to compare and select the most appropriate option for the project.