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A project has a S0S4 chance of a US$100 000 profit and a 40% chance of a US$100,000 loss. What is the expected monetary value for this project?

A.

US$20.000 loss

A.

US$20.000 loss

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B.

US$20,000 profit

B.

US$20,000 profit

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C.

US$40,000 loss

C.

US$40,000 loss

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D.

US$100,000 profit

D.

US$100,000 profit

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Suggested answer: B

Explanation:

The expected monetary value (EMV) for this project can be calculated as follows: (0.6 x US$100,000) - (0.4 x US$100,000) = US$60,000 - US$40,000 = US$20,000 profit.

The EMV of a project is the weighted average of the possible outcomes, which are a US$100,000 profit or a US$100,000 loss in this case. To calculate the EMV, we multiply the probability of each outcome by its monetary value, and then add them together. The formula is:

EMV = (Probability of profit x Value of profit) + (Probability of loss x Value of loss)

In this case, the probability of profit is 60%, and the value of profit is US$100,000. The probability of loss is 40%, and the value of loss is -US$100,000 (negative because it is a loss). Therefore, the EMV is:

EMV = (0.6 x 100,000) + (0.4 x -100,000) EMV = 60,000 - 40,000 EMV = US$20,000

This means that the project has an expected monetary value of US$20,000 profit, which is the answer option B. The other options are incorrect because they do not match the EMV calculation.

The EMV is a useful tool for comparing different projects or alternatives based on their expected values. However, it does not account for the variability or uncertainty of the outcomes, which may also affect the project decision making. For example, a project with a higher EMV but a higher risk may not be preferable to a project with a lower EMV but a lower risk. Therefore, the EMV should be used with caution and in conjunction with other risk analysis techniques.

For more information on the EMV and other risk analysis methods, you can refer to the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline and Specifications, the A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV): A Guide With Examples. I hope this helps you understand the concept of EMV and how to apply it to project risk management

A budget change request was initiated by a functional manager in an organization due to a shortage in the functional manager's department budget. The functional manager asks the CEO to approve utilization of a contingency budget reserved for one of the projects in its closing phase.

What should the risk manager of the related project have done to prevent this situation from happening?

A.

Reformed the risk monitoring and closing process properly.

A.

Reformed the risk monitoring and closing process properly.

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B.

Created the project work plan and budget more accurately.

B.

Created the project work plan and budget more accurately.

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C.

Educated the project team on budget change requests.

C.

Educated the project team on budget change requests.

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D.

Communicated better with the organization's CEO.

D.

Communicated better with the organization's CEO.

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Suggested answer: A

Explanation:

According to the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Handbook1, one of the domains of the PMI-RMP exam isRisk Monitoring and Reporting, which involves tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, executing risk response plans, and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project1. The risk manager of the related project should have reformed the risk monitoring and closing process properly to ensure that the contingency budget is only used for the intended risks and not for other purposes.The risk manager should have also communicated the status and outcomes of the risk activities to the relevant stakeholders, such as the functional manager and the CEO, to avoid any confusion or conflict over the budget allocation1.Reference:1: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Handbook, page 6.

The risk manager should have ensured a more accurate project work plan and budget to prevent the functional manager from requesting to use the project's contingency budget. A well-planned budget would have avoided the shortage in the functional manager's department budget.

The project risk manager is in the process of identifying risks. The project sponsor has communicated that there is an influential stakeholder who has a senior management position. The other stakeholders do not feel comfortable speaking in front of this stakeholder.

What should the project risk manager do next to identify risks?

A.

Review the risk breakdown structure to ensure project scope is covered.

A.

Review the risk breakdown structure to ensure project scope is covered.

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B.

Use the brainstorming technique to remove personal bias.

B.

Use the brainstorming technique to remove personal bias.

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C.

Use expert judgment to remove ego or emotional conflict.

C.

Use expert judgment to remove ego or emotional conflict.

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D.

Consider the Delphi technique to gather all stakeholder opinions.

D.

Consider the Delphi technique to gather all stakeholder opinions.

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Suggested answer: D

Explanation:

The Delphi technique allows the project risk manager to gather opinions from all stakeholders anonymously. This method would enable stakeholders to express their concerns without feeling uncomfortable in front of the influential stakeholder.

The Delphi technique is a tool used to make quick decisions with consensus. This technique consists of sending several sets of anonymous questions to each expert. This is followed by a group discussion after every round. The Delphi technique can help the project risk manager to identify risks by soliciting the opinions of all stakeholders without revealing their identities. This way, the stakeholders can express their views freely and honestly, without being influenced or intimidated by the influential stakeholder. The Delphi technique can also reduce personal bias, ego, or emotional conflict among the participants. The project risk manager can use the results of the Delphi technique to create a list of potential risks and their causes, effects, and probabilities.Reference:3,2,5

A certain risk is identified for a major project, and the risk response is planned. However, the analysis reveals a high probability for a secondary risk which will be tolerated based on the organization's risk thresholds. The secondary risk is subsequently registered. During project execution, the primary risk occurs, the planned action is taken, and the secondary risk emerges

What two actions should the risk owner take? (Choose two.)

A.

Implement the secondary risk response and update the project documents.

A.

Implement the secondary risk response and update the project documents.

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B.

Conduct meeting with all stakeholder to agree on post impact solutions.

B.

Conduct meeting with all stakeholder to agree on post impact solutions.

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C.

Set the corresponding trigger conditions to the secondary risk.

C.

Set the corresponding trigger conditions to the secondary risk.

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D.

Engage the project manager to authorize the secondary risk's response.

D.

Engage the project manager to authorize the secondary risk's response.

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E.

Update and communicate assessments of the secondary risk's impact.

E.

Update and communicate assessments of the secondary risk's impact.

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Suggested answer: A, E

Explanation:

The risk owner should implement the secondary risk response, as it is now being tolerated, and update the project documents accordingly. They should also update and communicate the assessments of the secondary risk's impact to ensure everyone is aware of the situation.

According to the PMI-RMP Handbook1, the risk owner is responsible for implementing the risk response plan and monitoring the risk and its secondary risks. Therefore, the risk owner should take the following two actions when the secondary risk emerges:

Implement the secondary risk response and update the project documents. This action is consistent with the risk response strategy of tolerance, which means accepting the risk and its consequences. The risk owner should execute the planned response for the secondary risk, such as contingency plans or fallback plans, and update the relevant project documents, such as the risk register, the risk report, and the lessons learned register, to reflect the current status and impact of the risk.

Update and communicate assessments of the secondary risk's impact. This action is consistent with the risk monitoring and control process, which involves tracking the identified risks, evaluating their impact and probability, and reporting the risk information to the appropriate stakeholders. The risk owner should reassess the secondary risk's impact on the project objectives, such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality, and communicate the results to the project manager and other relevant stakeholders, such as the sponsor, the customer, and the team members.

PMI-RMP Handbook1

PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management2

Multiple new risks have come up on a project that were not included on the risk register. The project manager met with the team to explain that risk management is critical for the success of the project, and risk identification is key.

What should the project manager do next?

A.

Review assumptions and constraints around risks.

A.

Review assumptions and constraints around risks.

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B.

Develop the risk response plans for identified risks.

B.

Develop the risk response plans for identified risks.

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C.

Determine the likelihood and impact of the risks.

C.

Determine the likelihood and impact of the risks.

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D.

Apply an iterative approach to risk identification.

D.

Apply an iterative approach to risk identification.

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Suggested answer: D

Explanation:

The project manager should apply an iterative approach to risk identification, which involves continuous risk identification throughout the project lifecycle. This will help to identify and address new risks that may arise during the project.

According to the PMBOK Guide, risk identification is the process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. It is an iterative process because new risks may evolve or become known only as the project progresses through its life cycle. There are many techniques available for risk identification and assessment, such as brainstorming, interviews, checklists, SWOT analysis, cause and effect diagrams, etc. The project manager should apply an iterative approach to risk identification to ensure that all relevant risks are captured and updated throughout the project. The project manager should also involve the project team and other stakeholders in the risk identification process to obtain their input and perspectives.

The other options are not valid for the next step after explaining the importance of risk management to the team:

Review assumptions and constraints around risks: This is a technique for risk identification, but it is not the only one. The project manager should use a combination of techniques to identify risks, not just focus on one aspect. Also, reviewing assumptions and constraints is not the same as applying an iterative approach, which implies repeating the risk identification process at regular intervals or when changes occur.

Develop the risk response plans for identified risks: This is a step in the Plan Risk Responses process, which comes after the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis and Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis processes. The project manager should not develop the risk response plans before identifying and analyzing the risks.

Determine the likelihood and impact of the risks: This is a step in the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process, which comes after the Identify Risks process. The project manager should not determine the likelihood and impact of the risks before identifying them.

Towards the end of definitive design, project costs have increased to the point where it will be classified as a capital asset project. The customer has expressed they want one final total project completion date and will afford no extensions after it is established.

How should the risk manager proceed?

A.

Perform a qualitative risk analysis and update the results.

A.

Perform a qualitative risk analysis and update the results.

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B.

Update the assumptions/exclusions register with the new information.

B.

Update the assumptions/exclusions register with the new information.

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C.

Update the risk register and prepare for the Monte Carlo analysis.

C.

Update the risk register and prepare for the Monte Carlo analysis.

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D.

Perform a quantitative risk analysis and update the results.

D.

Perform a quantitative risk analysis and update the results.

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Suggested answer: C

Explanation:

The risk manager should perform a quantitative risk analysis to determine the potential impact of risks on the project's completion date. This will help in providing a more accurate project completion date to the customer, considering the risks and their potential effects on the project schedule.

According to the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline1, one of the tasks in the domain ofRisk Analysisis to perform quantitative risk analysis using techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, decision tree analysis, sensitivity analysis, etc., to quantify the possible outcomes for the project and their probabilities, and to evaluate the cost and schedule impacts of risks1. In this scenario, the risk manager should perform a quantitative risk analysis and update the results, because the project costs have increased significantly and the customer has imposed a strict deadline for the project completion. A quantitative risk analysis will help the risk manager to estimate the probability of meeting the project objectives, such as cost and schedule, and to determine the appropriate contingency reserves for the project.A quantitative risk analysis will also provide more accurate and reliable information for the customer and the project team, and will support the risk response planning process2.Reference:1: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline, page 92: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, pages 431-432.

The project manager is reviewing the lessons learned from a previous similar project. The previous project was delayed due to the delay in delivery of a gas turbine generator (GTG). Construction of the previous project had to be shut down unexpectedly to wait for the late delivery of the GTG.

What should the project manager do first?

A.

Include the risk in the register and communicate with the stakeholders.

A.

Include the risk in the register and communicate with the stakeholders.

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B.

Communicate with the client to provide the previous shutdown plan.

B.

Communicate with the client to provide the previous shutdown plan.

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C.

Review and update the project schedule.

C.

Review and update the project schedule.

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D.

Interview the other project manager to learn more details.

D.

Interview the other project manager to learn more details.

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Suggested answer: C

Explanation:

The project manager should first gather more information about the previous project's issues by interviewing the other project manager. This will help in understanding the root causes of the delay and how to prevent similar issues in the current project before taking further action.

The project manager should first include the risk of delay in delivery of the GTG in the risk register and communicate with the stakeholders about the potential impact and response strategies. This is part of the risk identification process, which is the first step in risk management. The risk register is a document that records the identified risks, their causes, effects, probabilities, impacts, and response plans. The project manager should communicate with the stakeholders to ensure that they are aware of the risk and its implications, and to obtain their feedback and support. The project manager should also update the risk register as new information becomes available or as the risk status changes. The other options are not the first actions that the project manager should take. Communicating with the client to provide the previous shutdown plan is part of the risk response process, which comes after the risk identification and analysis processes. Reviewing and updating the project schedule is part of the schedule management process, which is not directly related to risk management. Interviewing the other project manager to learn more details is a technique that can be used to identify risks, but it is not the first action that the project manager should take. The project manager should first document the risk in the risk register and communicate with the stakeholders before seeking more information from other sources.Reference:3,4,5

The project manager and the risk manager of a new project to develop an application to support autonomous driving are meeting with the sponsor and key stakeholders to discuss the project. During the meeting, it is identified that the transport authority is discussing new traffic regulations for the industry that could be in place before the project ends.

How should the project manager and the risk manager handle this situation?

A.

Ensure the project complies with the current traffic regulations and laws.

A.

Ensure the project complies with the current traffic regulations and laws.

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B.

Send a letter to the traffic authority with the general project information.

B.

Send a letter to the traffic authority with the general project information.

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C.

Perform inquiries on the website of the traffic authority weekly.

C.

Perform inquiries on the website of the traffic authority weekly.

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D.

Meet with the traffic authority staff in charge of the new regulation.

D.

Meet with the traffic authority staff in charge of the new regulation.

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Suggested answer: D

Explanation:

Meeting with the traffic authority staff responsible for the new regulation allows the project manager and risk manager to understand the potential changes and their impact on the project. This will help them proactively address any potential issues and ensure the project complies with the new regulations.

According to the PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1, the project manager and the risk manager should handle this situation by meeting with the traffic authority staff in charge of the new regulation. This is because:

The new traffic regulation is an external risk that could affect the project objectives, such as scope, schedule, cost, quality, and customer satisfaction. External risks are those that arise from outside the project boundaries and are beyond the control of the project team. Examples of external risks include changes in government policies, regulations, laws, market conditions, environmental factors, etc.

The project manager and the risk manager should proactively engage with the external stakeholders who have the power and influence to create or modify the external risks. By meeting with the traffic authority staff, they can establish a positive relationship, gain insights into the new regulation, and influence its development to align with the project needs. They can also obtain information on the probability and impact of the risk, as well as the potential response strategies.

The other options are not effective in handling this situation because:

Ensuring the project complies with the current traffic regulations and laws does not address the risk of the new regulation that could change the project requirements, scope, or deliverables. It also does not help the project team to prepare for the possible changes and mitigate their negative effects.

Sending a letter to the traffic authority with the general project information does not establish a direct and timely communication channel with the external stakeholder. It also does not provide enough details or feedback to understand the nature and implications of the new regulation.

Performing inquiries on the website of the traffic authority weekly does not allow the project team to influence the development of the new regulation or obtain reliable and updated information. It also does not enable the project team to build trust and rapport with the external stakeholder.

PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1

Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Exam Cert Guide2

The project manager has completed four projects all with similar scope. The project manager has recently been assigned to start on a new project and believes some risks may occur again on this project.

What should the project manager do?

A.

Implement the risk response strategies into the risk plan.

A.

Implement the risk response strategies into the risk plan.

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B.

Inform the sponsor that these risks should be added according to experience.

B.

Inform the sponsor that these risks should be added according to experience.

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C.

Add the risks to the risk register and determine a contingency.

C.

Add the risks to the risk register and determine a contingency.

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D.

Discuss and evaluate the identified risks with the project team.

D.

Discuss and evaluate the identified risks with the project team.

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Suggested answer: D

Explanation:

The project manager should discuss the identified risks with the project team to ensure that everyone is aware of the potential risks and can provide input on the likelihood and impact of each risk. This collaborative approach will help in developing a comprehensive risk management plan.

The project manager should discuss and evaluate the identified risks with the project team, as this is part of the risk identification process. The project manager can use their experience from previous projects to identify potential risks that may occur again on the new project, but they should also involve the project team to obtain their input and perspectives. The project team can help the project manager to validate, refine, and prioritize the identified risks, as well as to suggest possible risk responses. The project manager should document the identified risks and their characteristics in the risk register, which is a tool for risk management. The other options are not appropriate actions for the project manager to take. Implementing the risk response strategies into the risk plan is premature, as the project manager should first analyze and evaluate the risks before deciding on the best response strategies. Informing the sponsor that these risks should be added according to experience is not sufficient, as the project manager should also consult the project team and other stakeholders to ensure that all relevant risks are identified and assessed. Adding the risks to the risk register and determining a contingency is part of the risk analysis and response planning processes, which come after the risk identification process. The project manager should first discuss and evaluate the identified risks with the project team before moving to the next steps of risk management.Reference:2,3, [5]

During project planning, a risk is identified for which the risk manager has defined a mitigation strategy. Later during project execution, this risk still leaves substantial residual risk.

What should the risk manager do to handle this situation?

A.

Revisit this risk in the risk register and redefine the mitigation strategy.

A.

Revisit this risk in the risk register and redefine the mitigation strategy.

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B.

Activate the contingency plan to handle this risk during execution.

B.

Activate the contingency plan to handle this risk during execution.

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C.

Mark this new risk as an extremely high priority and inform all stakeholders.

C.

Mark this new risk as an extremely high priority and inform all stakeholders.

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D.

Ask the project sponsor for more budget to deal with this risk.

D.

Ask the project sponsor for more budget to deal with this risk.

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Suggested answer: C

Explanation:

If a risk still leaves substantial residual risk after implementing the mitigation strategy, the risk manager should revisit the risk register and redefine the mitigation strategy to reduce the residual risk to an acceptable level.

According to the PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1, an effect of adding the correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model is that it increases the standard deviation of the model. This is because:

Correlation is the statistical relationship between two or more variables. In a schedule risk analysis, correlation can be used to model the dependency between the durations of different activities. For example, if two activities are positively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is also likely to take longer than expected. Conversely, if two activities are negatively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is likely to take shorter than expected.

A Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis is a simulation technique that uses random values for uncertain variables, such as activity durations, to generate possible outcomes for the project schedule. The simulation is repeated many times to produce a probability distribution of the project completion date and duration. The standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of the distribution. A higher standard deviation means that the distribution is more spread out and less predictable.

Adding correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model increases the standard deviation of the model because it introduces more variability and uncertainty to the simulation. Correlated activities can have a cumulative effect on the project schedule, either positively or negatively, depending on the direction and strength of the correlation. This can result in more extreme outcomes for the project completion date and duration, which increase the spread of the distribution and the standard deviation.

PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1

Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Exam Cert Guide2

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