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A project manager is developing the risk register and works with the team to analyze risks and determine their probability and impact. There is valuable historical data available that may be used to simulate the overall risk outcome.

Which type of analysis should the project manager use in this instance?

A.

Check list analysis

A.

Check list analysis

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B.

Cause and effect

B.

Cause and effect

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C.

Specialized meeting

C.

Specialized meeting

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D.

Quantitative analysis

D.

Quantitative analysis

Answers
Suggested answer: D

Explanation:

In this instance, the project manager should use quantitative analysis to simulate the overall risk outcome. Quantitative analysis techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation or decision tree analysis, can be used to model the combined effect of individual risks on project objectives. By leveraging historical data, the project manager can generate more accurate and reliable risk assessments, which can help inform risk response strategies and improve project decision-making.

Quantitative analysis is a type of risk analysis that numerically analyzes the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives1.It involves using historical data and other information to estimate the probability and impact of risks, and then applying mathematical techniques such as simulation, sensitivity analysis, decision tree analysis, or expected monetary value analysis to quantify the overall risk exposure of the project2. Quantitative analysis can provide more accurate and objective results than qualitative analysis, which relies on subjective judgments and ratings.Quantitative analysis can also help the project manager prioritize risks, determine the optimal risk response strategy, and allocate contingency reserves3. Therefore, the correct answer is D.

A risk manager was recently hired to assist with a mid-sized infrastructure project. The risk manager becomes aware that they have an inexperienced project team.

What two items should the risk manager have their team review in order to prepare for an upcoming risk identification workshop? (Choose two.)

A.

Scope of work and requirements

A.

Scope of work and requirements

Answers
B.

Monte Carlo analysis from a similar project

B.

Monte Carlo analysis from a similar project

Answers
C.

List of pre-approved contractors

C.

List of pre-approved contractors

Answers
D.

Organization chart for city permit department

D.

Organization chart for city permit department

Answers
E.

Risk management plan

E.

Risk management plan

Answers
Suggested answer: A, E

Explanation:

The risk manager should have their team review the scope of work and requirements to ensure they understand the project's objectives and deliverables. Additionally, reviewing the risk management plan will help the team understand the risk management process, roles, and responsibilities, and prepare for the risk identification workshop.

According to the PMBOK Guide -- Sixth Edition1, the scope of work and requirements are key inputs for the risk identification process, as they define the project boundaries, deliverables, assumptions, and constraints. The risk management plan is also an essential input, as it provides the guidelines and framework for how risk management will be performed throughout the project. The other options are not relevant for risk identification, as they are either related to other processes (such as Monte Carlo analysis for quantitative risk analysis) or not directly related to the project risks (such as the list of pre-approved contractors or the organization chart for city permit department).Reference:PMBOK Guide -- Sixth Edition, pages 397-398.

Project stakeholders can often be risk averse with little to no knowledge of the risk process. How should a risk manager increase stakeholder risk appetite?

A.

Exclude risk averse stakeholders from future risk discussions

A.

Exclude risk averse stakeholders from future risk discussions

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B.

Explain risk handling and mitigation strategies

B.

Explain risk handling and mitigation strategies

Answers
C.

Increase the impact of all risks in the risk breakdown structure (RBS)

C.

Increase the impact of all risks in the risk breakdown structure (RBS)

Answers
D.

Develop a generous probabilistic cash flow model

D.

Develop a generous probabilistic cash flow model

Answers
Suggested answer: B

Explanation:

The risk manager should increase stakeholder risk appetite by explaining risk handling and mitigation strategies, which will help stakeholders understand how risks can be managed and reduced, making them more comfortable with the risk process.

The best way to increase stakeholder risk appetite is to explain risk handling and mitigation strategies, which are the actions taken to reduce the probability and/or impact of risks, or to enhance the opportunities. By doing so, the risk manager can help the stakeholders understand how the risks can be managed effectively and efficiently, and how the potential benefits can outweigh the potential costs. This can also increase the stakeholder confidence and trust in the risk process and the project outcomes. The other options are not appropriate ways to increase stakeholder risk appetite. Excluding risk averse stakeholders from future risk discussions can alienate them and create conflicts. Increasing the impact of all risks in the risk breakdown structure (RBS) can exaggerate the risk exposure and create unnecessary fear and anxiety.Developing a generous probabilistic cash flow model can create unrealistic expectations and lead to poor decision making.Reference:PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline and Specifications, page 81.A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, pages 403-4042.

A risk manager documents the causes in the risk register and needs to ensure the risk is adequately described. What is critical for the risk manager to consider when describing the causes?

A.

Each cause has a degree of uncertainty

A.

Each cause has a degree of uncertainty

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B.

Each cause has well defined owner

B.

Each cause has well defined owner

Answers
C.

The causes represent actual conditions

C.

The causes represent actual conditions

Answers
D.

The causes must be validated by the risk owner

D.

The causes must be validated by the risk owner

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Suggested answer: C

Explanation:

When describing the causes of a risk, it is critical for the risk manager to ensure that the causes represent actual conditions, as this will help in the accurate identification and assessment of the.

According to the PMBOK Guide, a risk is defined as ''an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives'' (page 720). A risk can be described by its causes, effects, and probability of occurrence. The causes are the factors or circumstances that give rise to the risk, and they should represent the actual conditions that exist or may exist in the project environment. The causes should not be based on assumptions, opinions, or speculations, but on facts, evidence, or data. Therefore, option C is the correct answer.

Option A is incorrect because not every cause has a degree of uncertainty. Some causes may be certain or deterministic, such as contractual obligations, regulatory requirements, or physical laws. Uncertainty is a characteristic of the risk itself, not the cause.

Option B is incorrect because not every cause has a well-defined owner. The owner is the person or entity who is assigned the responsibility and authority to manage the risk, not the cause. The owner should be identified after the risk is analyzed and prioritized, not before.

Option D is incorrect because the causes do not need to be validated by the risk owner. The risk owner is the person or entity who is accountable for the risk response, not the risk identification. The causes should be validated by the risk manager or the risk identification team, who are responsible for collecting and documenting the risk information.

The project director and project manager have met with the board and determined that the project has depleted the entire contingency reserve and has started eroding the profit margin.

The project manager would like the risk manager to take full advantage of opportunities.

Which response should the risk manager take?

A.

Mitigate

A.

Mitigate

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B.

Accept

B.

Accept

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C.

Transfer

C.

Transfer

Answers
D.

Exploit

D.

Exploit

Answers
Suggested answer: D

Explanation:

The risk manager should choose to exploit opportunities, as this response aims to maximize the positive effects of opportunities, which can help recover the project's contingency reserve and profit margin.

Exploit is a positive risk response strategy that aims to ensure that the opportunity is realized1.It involves eliminating the uncertainty associated with a particular upside risk and making it happen2. For example, if there is an opportunity to reduce the project cost by using a cheaper supplier, the project manager can exploit it by signing a contract with the supplier and securing the savings.Exploit is the opposite of avoid, which is a negative risk response strategy that seeks to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact2.

The other options are not appropriate for taking full advantage of opportunities.Mitigate is a negative risk response strategy that reduces the probability and/or impact of a threat2.It is the opposite of enhance, which is a positive risk response strategy that increases the probability and/or impact of an opportunity1.Accept is a risk response strategy that involves acknowledging the risk and not taking any action unless the risk occurs2. It can be applied to both threats and opportunities, but it does not actively pursue them.Transfer is a negative risk response strategy that shifts the impact of a threat to a third party, along with ownership of the response2.It is the opposite of share, which is a positive risk response strategy that allocates ownership of an opportunity to a third party who is best able to capture it for the benefit of the project1.

The project manager performed' a variance analysis on the project during the execution phase. The variances were shown as increasing

What does this result imply?

A.

The uncertainty and risk are increasing.

A.

The uncertainty and risk are increasing.

Answers
B.

The project schedule is lagging behind.

B.

The project schedule is lagging behind.

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C.

There is no potential for future deviation.

C.

There is no potential for future deviation.

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D.

The project is over budget.

D.

The project is over budget.

Answers
Suggested answer: A

Explanation:

Increasing variances during the execution phase imply that the uncertainty and risk are increasing, as the project performance is deviating from the planned values.

According to the PMBOK Guide -- Sixth Edition1, variance analysis is a technique used to compare the actual performance of the project against the planned or expected performance. It can be applied to various aspects of the project, such as scope, schedule, cost, quality, and risk. Variance analysis can help identify deviations from the baseline and determine the causes and impacts of those deviations. If the variances are shown as increasing, it means that the actual performance is deviating more and more from the planned performance, which implies that the uncertainty and risk are increasing. This could affect the project objectives and deliverables, and require corrective or preventive actions to bring the project back on track. The other options are not correct, as they are either too specific (B and D) or contradictory to the result of the variance analysis.Reference:PMBOK Guide -- Sixth Edition, pages 262-263.

The risk manager conducted an updated Monte Carlo simul-ation for the project at the end of a phase. The simul-ation reveals a key activity is now on the critical path.

What recommendation should the risk manager make to the project manager?

A.

Add more float to the key activity

A.

Add more float to the key activity

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B.

Add more contingency to the project

B.

Add more contingency to the project

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C.

Review the plans for the key activity

C.

Review the plans for the key activity

Answers
D.

Increase the budget for the key activity

D.

Increase the budget for the key activity

Answers
Suggested answer: C

Explanation:

The risk manager should recommend that the project manager review the plans for the key activity, as this will help identify potential issues and opportunities to improve the activity's performance and reduce its impact on the critical path.

The risk manager should recommend the project manager to review the plans for the key activity, which is now on the critical path according to the Monte Carlo simulation. The critical path is the sequence of activities that determines the minimum possible duration of the project. Any delay on the critical path will affect the project completion date. Therefore, it is important to review the plans for the key activity and identify any potential risks, issues, or opportunities that may affect its performance. The risk manager and the project manager should also evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of any risk response strategies for the key activity, such as fast-tracking, crashing, or resource optimization. The other options are not appropriate recommendations for the risk manager to make. Adding more float to the key activity is not possible, since the critical path has zero float by definition. Adding more contingency to the project may not address the specific risks or issues related to the key activity.Increasing the budget for the key activity may not improve its duration or quality, and may also increase the project cost baseline unnecessarily.Reference:PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline and Specifications, page 91.A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, pages 215-2162.Project Critical Path Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation3.

A project lihat was in the execution phase for the last six months was put on hold and was eventually cancelled after numerous scope related challenges. It was decided to re-plan the scope and divide the project into multiple projects to have better insight into end objectives. As part of the project start up. the project manager is developing the risk planning for the project.

What three artifacts should the project manager consult or review during this process? (Choose three.)

A.

Project contracts

A.

Project contracts

Answers
B.

Lessons learned registers from analogous projects

B.

Lessons learned registers from analogous projects

Answers
C.

Risk register

C.

Risk register

Answers
D.

Risk management plan

D.

Risk management plan

Answers
E.

Code of regulations

E.

Code of regulations

Answers
Suggested answer: A, B, D

Explanation:

The project manager should consult or review project contracts, lessons learned registers from analogous projects, and the risk management plan to develop an effective risk planning for the project.

According to the PMBOK Guide, the risk management plan is one of the key inputs for the plan risk management process, which is the first process in the project risk management knowledge area. The risk management plan describes how risk management activities will be structured and performed throughout the project. It includes information such as the methodology, roles and responsibilities, budget, timing, risk categories, definitions of risk probability and impact, probability and impact matrix, revised stakeholders' risk tolerances, reporting formats, and tracking (page 409). Therefore, option D is the correct answer.

The project contracts are also an important input for the plan risk management process, as they may contain terms and conditions that can create or affect various project risks. For example, contracts may include clauses related to penalties, incentives, warranties, intellectual property rights, termination, force majeure, arbitration, indemnification, etc. The project manager should review the project contracts to identify any potential sources of risk and plan appropriate responses (page 410). Therefore, option A is the correct answer.

The lessons learned registers from analogous projects are another valuable input for the plan risk management process, as they provide historical information and knowledge that can help the project manager identify and analyze risks, as well as plan risk responses. The lessons learned registers may contain information such as the risks that occurred, the root causes of the risks, the risk triggers, the effectiveness of the risk responses, the residual and secondary risks, the risk owners, the risk ratings, the risk trends, etc. The project manager should consult the lessons learned registers from similar or comparable projects to learn from past experiences and avoid repeating mistakes (page 411). Therefore, option B is the correct answer.

The risk register is not an input for the plan risk management process, but an output. The risk register is a document that contains the list of identified risks, their causes, potential responses, and other relevant information. The risk register is created during the identify risks process, which is the second process in the project risk management knowledge area. The risk register is then updated and refined throughout the project as more information becomes available and new risks emerge (page 414). Therefore, option C is incorrect.

The code of regulations is not an input for the plan risk management process, but a type of enterprise environmental factor. Enterprise environmental factors are the conditions, not under the control of the project team, that influence, constrain, or direct the project. The code of regulations refers to the rules and standards that govern the project's industry, domain, or sector. The code of regulations may affect the project's scope, schedule, cost, quality, resources, communications, procurement, and risk management. The project manager should consider the code of regulations when planning risk management activities, but it is not an artifact that needs to be reviewed or consulted (page 38). Therefore, option E is incorrect.

A risk manager of a major project facilitates a meeting to develop the risk management plan. What two factors does the risk manager need to consider to ensure an effective risk management plan is developed? (Choose two.)

A.

Applying modern risk management techniques.

A.

Applying modern risk management techniques.

Answers
B.

Aligning to project constraints and priorities.

B.

Aligning to project constraints and priorities.

Answers
C.

Ensuring risk response strategies mitigate all risks.

C.

Ensuring risk response strategies mitigate all risks.

Answers
D.

Minimizing implementation costs.

D.

Minimizing implementation costs.

Answers
E.

Obtaining stakeholder acceptance

E.

Obtaining stakeholder acceptance

Answers
Suggested answer: B, E

Explanation:

To ensure an effective risk management plan, the risk manager needs to consider aligning the plan to project constraints and priorities and obtaining stakeholder acceptance, as these factors will help ensure that the plan is relevant and supported by the project team and stakeholders.

According to the PMI-RMP Handbook, the risk management plan is a document that describes how risk management activities will be structured and performed on the project. It is one of the main outputs of the Plan Risk Management process. The risk management plan should consider the following factors to ensure its effectiveness:

Aligning to project constraints and priorities: The risk management plan should be aligned with the project objectives, scope, schedule, cost, quality, resources, and stakeholder expectations. It should also reflect the project's risk appetite, tolerance, and threshold levels, which indicate the degree of uncertainty that the project can accept. The risk management plan should prioritize the risk management activities based on the project's critical success factors and key performance indicators.

Obtaining stakeholder acceptance: The risk management plan should be developed with the involvement and input of key stakeholders, such as the project sponsor, customer, team members, subject matter experts, and other relevant parties. The risk management plan should be communicated and approved by the stakeholders to ensure their commitment and support for the risk management process. The risk management plan should also define the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders in risk management, as well as the reporting and escalation mechanisms.

The other options are not valid factors for ensuring an effective risk management plan:

Applying modern risk management techniques: The risk management plan should apply the appropriate risk management techniques that suit the project's context, complexity, and characteristics. The techniques should be based on the best practices and standards of the profession, such as the PMBOK Guide and the Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. The techniques do not have to be modern or innovative, as long as they are effective and efficient.

Ensuring risk response strategies mitigate all risks: The risk management plan should define the risk response strategies that will be used to address the identified risks. However, the risk response strategies do not have to mitigate all risks, as some risks may be accepted, transferred, or avoided. The risk response strategies should be based on the risk analysis and evaluation, which consider the probability and impact of the risks, as well as the cost and benefits of the responses.

Minimizing implementation costs: The risk management plan should consider the budget and resources available for the risk management activities. However, the risk management plan should not aim to minimize the implementation costs at the expense of the quality and effectiveness of the risk management process. The risk management plan should balance the costs and benefits of the risk management activities, and ensure that they provide value to the project.

Upon reviewing the risk analysis results, the project manager notices several risks that occur more frequently than others. What should the project manager do?

A.

Reduce the probabilities of those risks on the risk register

A.

Reduce the probabilities of those risks on the risk register

Answers
B.

Transfer ownership of those risks to the customer

B.

Transfer ownership of those risks to the customer

Answers
C.

Implement the risk handling strategies for those risks

C.

Implement the risk handling strategies for those risks

Answers
D.

Request additional management reserve for those risks

D.

Request additional management reserve for those risks

Answers
Suggested answer: D

Explanation:

The project manager should implement the risk handling strategies for the risks that occur more frequently, as this will help reduce their impact on the project and improve overall project performance.

Exploit is a positive risk response strategy that aims to ensure that the opportunity is realized1.It involves eliminating the uncertainty associated with a particular upside risk and making it happen2. For example, if there is an opportunity to reduce the project cost by using a cheaper supplier, the project manager can exploit it by signing a contract with the supplier and securing the savings.Exploit is the opposite of avoid, which is a negative risk response strategy that seeks to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact2.

The other options are not appropriate for taking full advantage of opportunities.Mitigate is a negative risk response strategy that reduces the probability and/or impact of a threat2.It is the opposite of enhance, which is a positive risk response strategy that increases the probability and/or impact of an opportunity1.Accept is a risk response strategy that involves acknowledging the risk and not taking any action unless the risk occurs2. It can be applied to both threats and opportunities, but it does not actively pursue them.Transfer is a negative risk response strategy that shifts the impact of a threat to a third party, along with ownership of the response2.It is the opposite of share, which is a positive risk response strategy that allocates ownership of an opportunity to a third party who is best able to capture it for the benefit of the project1.

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