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Question 317 - CSCP discussion

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The Delphi forecasting method offers which of the following advantages?

A.
It is based on widely used statistical formulas.
Answers
A.
It is based on widely used statistical formulas.
B.
It compensates for the individual biases of the participants.
Answers
B.
It compensates for the individual biases of the participants.
C.
It assigns more weight to the demand from key customers.
Answers
C.
It assigns more weight to the demand from key customers.
D.
It reduces the risk that a few individuals will dominate the process.
Answers
D.
It reduces the risk that a few individuals will dominate the process.
Suggested answer: B

Explanation:

The Delphi forecasting method is a structured communication technique that relies on a panel of experts. It compensates for individual biases by using multiple rounds of questioning and feedback. Experts provide forecasts anonymously, and after each round, a facilitator provides a summary of the forecasts along with the reasons given for their judgments. This process is repeated until a consensus is reached, minimizing the influence of individual biases and leading to more reliable results.

Statistical formulas (A) are not the basis of the Delphi method, which relies on expert judgment rather than purely statistical analysis.

Assigning more weight to key customers' demand (C) is not a feature of the Delphi method.

Reducing dominance by a few individuals (D) is correct but is a part of compensating for biases, not the primary advantage.

Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis. International Journal of Forecasting.

Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications.

asked 16/09/2024
Parker Perry
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