PMI PMI-RMP Practice Test - Questions Answers, Page 2

In risk management, to calculate the contingency budget for risks, we use the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) formula: EMV=ProbabilityofRiskImpactofRisk\text{EMV} = \text{Probability of Risk} \times \text{Impact of Risk}EMV=ProbabilityofRiskImpactofRisk

For Risk A:

Probability: 40% or 0.40

Impact: US$100,000 \text{EMV of Risk A} = 0.40 \times 100,000 = US$40,000

For Risk B:

Probability: 60% or 0.60

Impact: US$20,000 \text{EMV of Risk B} = 0.60 \times 20,000 = US$12,000

Total contingency budget = EMV of Risk A + EMV of Risk B 40,000 + 12,000 = US$52,000

Thus, the total contingency budget required for both risks is US$52,000. This approach follows PMI's risk management guidelines, specifically under the 'Quantitative Risk Analysis' process. This process focuses on determining numerical probabilities and monetary impacts to compute the expected financial impact of identified risks.

The first thing the risk manager should do is analyze the situation and meet with the risk owner. This will allow the risk manager to understand the challenges faced by the risk owner and work with them to find a solution. Conducting a cost-benefit analysis or changing the risk response strategy may be necessary, but it is important to first understand the situation before taking any action.

According to the PMI-RMP Exam Content Outline, one of the tasks in the domain of Risk Response Planning is to ''assist the risk owners in developing and implementing risk response strategies and actions based on the agreed-upon risk response plan''. Therefore, the first thing the risk manager should do is to analyze the situation and meet with the risk owner to understand the root cause of the challenges and the cost overrun, and to discuss possible solutions or alternatives. Highlighting this situation to the project manager, conducting a cost-benefit analysis, or changing the risk response strategy are possible actions that can be taken after the analysis and meeting, but not before.Reference: PMI-RMP Exam Content Outline, Domain 3: Risk Response Planning, Task 31

The analysis currently being used is qualitative risk analysis. Qualitative risk analysis involves assessing risks based on their likelihood of occurrence and their potential impact on the project. This type of analysis can help identify biases that may be impacting how team members perceive risks.

Qualitative risk analysis is the process of prioritizing individual project risks for further analysis or action by assessing their probability of occurrence and impact as well as other characteristics. Qualitative risk analysis helps to identify the most significant risks that require attention and response planning. One of the tools and techniques used in qualitative risk analysis is risk data quality assessment, which evaluates the degree to which the data about individual project risks is useful for risk management. Risk data quality assessment considers various aspects of data quality, such as reliability, accuracy, integrity, precision, and bias. Bias is the tendency of human judgment to be influenced by personal or organizational preferences, assumptions, beliefs, or emotions, rather than by objective facts or evidence. Bias can affect how project team members perceive and assess risks, leading to inaccurate or incomplete risk analysis results. Therefore, the risk manager who realizes the project team members have biases impacting how they perceive risks is currently using qualitative risk analysis to prioritize the risks and assess the quality of risk data.Reference:PMI, Practice Standard for Project Risk Management, 2009, p. 37-38, 41-42.

The risk identification technique that the risk manager should use is the nominal group technique. This technique involves bringing stakeholders together to brainstorm potential risks and then ranking them based on their importance. This allows for interaction and collaboration among stakeholders, which can help ensure that an exhaustive list of risks is created.

The nominal group technique is a risk identification technique that involves the interaction and collaboration of stakeholders to generate an exhaustive list of risks. It is a structured process that allows each participant to share their ideas independently, then rank and prioritize them as a group.This technique ensures that all opinions are considered and reduces the influence of dominant or biased individuals12

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The project manager should assess and record associated secondary risks and proceed to treat them as any other risks. This involves identifying and evaluating the potential negative health effects of using pesticides and developing a plan to mitigate these risks. While it is important to consider the concerns of residents, the health authorities have determined that not moving forward with the plan will have more serious consequences on public health.

Secondary risks are those that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a risk response. In this case, the use of pesticides is a risk response to limit the risks of harmful insects, but it may also cause negative health effects to some residents. This is a secondary risk that needs to be assessed and recorded in the risk register, along with its probability, impact, and response plan. The project manager should not suspend the project, as this would ignore the primary risk of harmful insects. The project manager should not consult with health experts to provide a risk trigger, as this is not a valid risk management technique. A risk trigger is an indication that a risk event is about to occur or has occurred, not a condition that prevents a risk response from being implemented. The project manager should not proceed with the project as normal, as this would neglect the secondary risk and its potential consequences. The project manager should follow the risk management process and treat the secondary risk as any other risk in the project.Reference:PMI. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition. Chapter 11: Project Risk Management, p. 408. 5

The action that the risk manager should propose is to ask the team to prepare a Monte Carlo analysis. This is a statistical technique that can be used to model the probability of different outcomes in a project. By performing a Monte Carlo analysis, the project manager can objectively evaluate key project risks and develop response plans based on this analysis.

A Monte Carlo analysis is a simulation technique that uses probability distributions and random sampling to model the possible outcomes of a project risk event. It can help the project manager to evaluate the key project risks and develop response plans based on the expected value, standard deviation, and confidence intervals of the results. A Monte Carlo analysis can also provide information on the probability of achieving the project objectives, such as cost, schedule, and quality.A Monte Carlo analysis is an objective method because it does not rely on subjective judgments or opinions, but on mathematical calculations and statistical data.Reference: PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Section 11.5.2.3, Monte Carlo Analysis1

A risk register should be developed before submitting a formal bid response to help the company understand the project's risk profile and account for potential risks in their proposal. This allows the company to make informed decisions about cost, schedule, and resources. (Reference: Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, Section 11.2)

A risk register is a document that is used as a risk management tool to identify potential setbacks within a project.A risk register is typically created at the start of a project (before it begins), and is regularly referenced and updated throughout the life of a project through deliberate risk monitoring and control1. A risk register is an important component of any successful risk management process and helps mitigate potential project delays that could arise.A risk register is shared with project stakeholders to ensure information is stored in one accessible place2. A risk register also helps to establish a hierarchy of risks, starting with the most impactful. The goal should be to have a path to mitigating those risks, reducing the harm they cause, or eliminating them.The register should also outline what's considered an acceptable level of risk and how to set up insurance to help offset the impacts3. Therefore, a risk register should be developed before a formal bid response is provided to the client to gain a greater understanding of the project's risk profile. This will help to estimate the project costs, schedule, and scope more accurately and realistically, as well as to identify the contingency plans and reserves needed to deal with the potential risks.Developing a risk register during the project execution phase, when a client project kick-off meeting is held, or after a project budget is set up with a purchase order are all too late to effectively identify and manage the risks that could affect the project success.Reference:2,3,1,4

The risk manager is responsible for ensuring that all risks, including secondary risks, are identified and addressed during the risk response planning process. If key secondary risks were missed, the risk manager should be held accountable. (Reference: Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, Section 11.5)

The risk manager is responsible for identifying and analyzing risks, as well as planning and implementing risk responses. Secondary risks are those risks that arise as a direct result of implementing a risk response to a specific risk. The risk manager should have considered the potential secondary risks during the risk response planning and updated the risk register accordingly.The project manager should hold the risk manager accountable for missing the secondary risks and ensure that they are properly addressed12

A risk checklist is a tool for identifying risks based on historical information and knowledge from similar projects. It is a list of potential risk sources or categories that can be used to prompt the project team to consider possible risks that may affect the project. A risk checklist should include information that is relevant and useful for identifying risks, such as lessons learned from similar completed projects and previous project risks that may be relevant to this project. These two pieces of information can help the project manager to learn from past experiences and avoid repeating the same mistakes or overlooking the same threats or opportunities. A risk checklist should not include information that is not directly related to risk identification, such as budget variance data from previously completed projects, project scope and cost management plans from previous projects, or stakeholder analysis metrics from projects with similar risk profiles. These pieces of information may be useful for other aspects of project management, such as planning, monitoring, or controlling, but they are not helpful for identifying risks on a project.Reference:PMI. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition. Chapter 11: Project Risk Management, p. 397. 5

Lessons learned and previous project risks are valuable sources of information for creating a risk checklist. They provide insights into potential risks that may impact the current project and help the project manager develop appropriate risk responses. Budget variance data, project scope and cost management plans, and stakeholder analysis metrics, although useful, are not directly related to risk identification. (Reference: Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, Section 11.2)